OMEN: Perhaps the economic crisis is improving or it could be an anomaly, but the Labor Department reported new applications for jobless benefits plunged to 601,000 last week, the lowest level in 14 weeks. That could be a sign the massive wave of layoffs has peaked. Economists had expected 635,000 claims and were pleased with the improved figures. Meanwhile, on another front, retail results brightened as many stores reported April sales exceeded expectations. Retail business last month was helped by warmer weather, tax refunds and a shift in the Easter holiday. Many major retail operations as well as mall outlets posted better-than expected results. Maybe not hard evidence of the beginning of a recovery, but encouraging news nevertheless.

O-BEN: Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke is in agreement— or at least he gave his most optimistic prediction yet— about the end of the recession, saying he expects the economy to start growing again this year—although the comeback could be weak and more jobs will disappear even after a recovery takes hold. The Fed chief recently told Congress’ Joint Economic Committee that he saw hopeful signs, including firmer home sales, a revival of consumer spending and some improvement in lending conditions for banks, businesses and individual borrowers. “We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year,” said Bernanke. For these good things to happen, he said, the banking system must continue to stabilize. Agreed.

REPORT: The North American Association of Floor Covering Distributors (NAFCD) on May 29 will release the spring edition of its Economic Outlook Report, which is produced quarterly by senior economists of the Institute for Trend Research (ITR). The report correlates macroeconomic data to specific product categories directly related to the flooring industry. It allows you to forecast what effect the economy has on your business and what you can reasonably expect for up to six quarters in the future. To complement the spring report, a Webinar featuring ITR executive director Brian Beaulieu will be held on June 23 to review highlights, provide additional analysis and allow questions specific to your business. The report and Webinar are free to members.

MERGER: The executive committees of the National Retail Federation (NRF) and the Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA) have unanimously agreed in principle to a merger that will create a single trade association representing retail interests. The new organization, as yet unnamed, was formed to enhance value to both groups’ members to ensure the retail industry speaks with one voice in representing its more than 15 million workers. In a joint statement, RILA chairman Robert Niblock, CEO of Lowe’s, and NRF chairman Myron Ullman, CEO of J.C. Penney, said the new association will accrue substantial benefits to members, including a unified voice in public affairs issues in Washington, a host of member events and conferences, and a single point of integration and dialogue with state retail associations and business groups in state capitals across the country. The merger is expected to be completed by summer.

APPEAL: The 2009 George Buckhardt Memorial Golf Outing, supported by the CFI, was held this past weekend and this year the corporate sponsor was designated, “In Memory of Jodi Bluejacket,” the great benefactor of the CFI who passed away recently. Tony Buckhardt, CFI board member and administrator of the Memorial Fund that honors his father, asks that donations be made in tribute to Bluejacket so that the work of the group continues. “It’s urgent that we care for our fellow installers and our fund is low. We need your help,” Buckhardt said. The appeal is compelling; the cause is noble. Help, if you can. Send donations to: The George Buckhardt Memorial Fund, 6620 CR64, St. Joe, IN. 46785.