I’ve been listening to an array of economists lately, and most agree it will take awhile before the biggest problems— mounting layoffs, housing bust, banking crisis and plunging confidence— start to rebound. No one can predict the exact week or month, but here are some indicators that may suggest the economy is on the mend.

1. An improvement in the unemployment rate. Of all the economic indicators, this is probably the single most important. Most economists expect the unemployment rate, now 7.6%, to hit at least 9% by the end of this year. That represents up to 2 million more lost jobs.

The first sign of an improvement will be corporate silence, as in no more job-cut announcements. Once that happens, the unemployment rate will plateau. Then, companies might start hiring again, and a couple of months later, the unemployment rate will start to fall. Three straight monthly declines would be a good sign that the economy is really on the rebound. Economy.com estimates by the middle of 2010, the unemployment rate will start to drift back toward 8.5%.

2. More stable home prices. The real estate boom and bust is what torpedoed the economy in the first place, and it won’t start to recover until the housing bubble fully deflates. The good news is prices have been falling for more than two years. Some economists predict housing prices should stop falling nationwide by the second half of 2009. Others think it will take longer, but whenever it happens will mark an important turning point. Hardly anybody thinks there will be another buying binge, but once prices stabilize, buyers will stop worrying they could be purchasing a costly asset that’s falling in value. As they buy, other kinds of consumer activity, like shopping for floor covering, will follow.

3. A consumer confidence rebound. Since consumer confidence closely tracks the job market, the dismal numbers of the last few months probably won’t improve until 2010. A turnaround in the housing or stock markets would help some people feel better. So would easier lending by banks, which would help solvent consumers buy a few more cars, appliances and other goods.

4. A less volatile stock market. Every investor hopes that beleaguered stocks will come roaring back in 2009 and regain some of the ground lost since the peak in 2007. But a better indicator of economic health would be a steady recovery without manic swings. The market could bounce back by mid-summer. Or it could remain stagnant for years, like it did for most of the 1970s.

5. Economic growth turns positive. By economic standards, the current downturn has already lasted longer than the typical post-World War II recession. A recent survey of economists by the Wall Street Journal found the majority think the economy will continue to contract for the first half of 2009, with growth turning positive in the second half of the year. And even when growth turns positive the economy could sputter along for awhile.

Then again, if you get the urge to spend, that might be the strongest indicator of all.