This industry is coming back. OK, maybe not tomorrow, next week or, truth be told, next year, but it IS coming back. Who says so? Economists, for one. Frank Ready, executive vice president, Armstrong World Industries, and CEO, North American Floor Products division, for another. Randy Merritt, president of Shaw Industries, is also on board.

First, a little background on the subject. Recessions happen. They are a normal part of life. The last one we saw was in 1991, perhaps coincidentally, when we were involved in another war. The faster we come out of it is inversely proportional to government intervention. Intervention slows the rate of recovery. There is a floor for housing and the stock market, and we have to get there as quickly as possible for the recovery to begin.

If the government were to get involved, it should only be in its dealings with the banks. Excess cash reserves are piling up inside the banks. The current feeling is they will either hold onto that cash or use it to purchase other banks. Some banks are walking away from recreational loans. Home equity loans are virtually non-existent. We would all benefit if someone ordered banks to make loans.

By the way, economist Alan Beaulieu warns that your customers are not going to get much help in this Wall Street bailout. Someone with a reduced mortgage payment will not rush into your stores to buy flooring because the bailout does not remove consumer stress.

Now here’s the good news. This industry will enjoy a bright future. According to Armstrong’s Ready, who spoke recently at a Maryland Northern Virginia Floor Covering Association meeting, over the next 10 years there will be 15 million new households created in this country. 80% of those will be supplied by new construction. Remodel is expected to grow at 4% a year over the next 10 years. The majority of that will be professionally installed.

The next thing to remember is baby boomers are in their 50s and 60s and have money. They are at their peak spending years. And they will invest.

Then there are the eco boomers, or Generation Y, born between 1982 and 1996. There are 70 million of these people. They are just starting to go into the real world, getting married, having families, buying homes. This will make the industry almost as strong as it was five years ago. Ready sees this industry coming back, and in a very big way.

“We have to fight through a tough period, but the underlying demographics are great for new construction, remodel, etc. Yes, it’s tough to see anything in 2009, but we simply have to fight through it. With any depression, the recovery has been much stronger than the decline.”

Shaw’s Merritt, who was the keynote speaker at the recent NAFCD conference, agreed, advising members to be prepared for the inevitable upturn: “This will end. She will replace that stained carpet, it’s just that maybe her husband will talk her out of doing it today.”