GOING UP: In keeping with the theme of this issue, Statistics, there are figures infrequently noted that deserve scrutiny. For example, inflation climbed in May at the fastest pace in six months, thrust higher by exploding gasoline costs and other types of energy. The Labor Department reported that consumer prices rose by 0.6% last month, the biggest single one-month increase since last November and cited surging food costs as culpable as energy. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke indicated now his biggest concern is not a recession but inflation getting out of control. His observations: So far this year, prices are rising at an annual rate of 4%, compared with a 4.1% increase for all of 2007. Energy rising at 16% annually, compared with a 17.4% gain for 2007, and food prices are rising at a 6.3% rate, up from 4.9% for all of last year. Bernanke is cranky.
SOURCING: There are indications that the tide is turning from outsourcing to in-sourcing. The 30-year-long process of moving American manufacturing to low-cost countries halfway around the world has been bittersweet for our economy, tossing workers out of good-paying jobs while driving down the price of goods for consumers. Here’s what’s changing things: The cost of shipping a standard, 40-foot container from Asia to the East Coast has tripled since 2000 and will double again as oil prices march toward $200 a barrel. It is estimated that transportation costs are now the equivalent of a 9% tariff on goods coming into the U.S., compared with the equivalent of only 3% when oil was $20 a barrel in 2007. As a result, many—not all—jobs are returning to America and that has to brighten the employment picture.
HOUSING: The housing market, a drag on the economy since the complete collapse of the subprime mortgage fiasco, is limping along with no signs of recovery or improvement. Sales of existing homes are alarmingly low. Sellers are confronted with a grim reality: There are more than 4.5 million homes on the market nationwide. At the pace houses are selling, it would take nearly 11 months to clear the market. The last time so many homes were for sale was in the early 1980s, when the economy was severely depressed. The inventory is not spread evenly across the country. Manhattan and choice neighborhoods in San Francisco and downtown Boston are not suffering the kind of glut that is hurting suburban Phoenix, southern Florida and inland areas of California. However, sales of existing single family homes dropped 20% in the first four months of the year from the comparable period a year ago and are running at their lowest levels since 1998. And sales of new homes have fallen 42% over the last year.
SHOPPING: Two of the country’s largest retailers blamed the “weak economy and battered housing industry” for discouraging consumers from making anything more than basic purchases. Home Depot, the leading home improvement retailer, and Target, the second largest discounter behind Wal-Mart, reported lower earnings and warned that results for the rest of the year would be sluggish. “As gas and food prices continue to rise and the housing market slows, consumers are facing increased financial pressure and reducing their spending, especially in discretionary categories,” said Gregg W. Steinhafel, Target’s CEO. The company reported a 7.5% drop in quarterly profit, which was $602 million for the fiscal first quarter that ended May 3, down from $651 million a year earlier. Home Depot’s profits fell 66% “as the housing crises hurt sales.” Net income fell to $356 million in the first quarter ended May 4, from $1.05 billion a year earlier. Lowe’s first quarter profit fell 18%, while total sales slid 1.3%. So, the dismal economy is taking its toll on all segments of business, the two worst contributors to the recession are the absurdly rising oil prices and the aftermath of the subprime debacle.