New York, NY, Nov. 28—Worries about job security dealt a blow to consumer confidence again in November, increasing the likelihood that retailers would fall short of the sales levels they had hoped for during the holidays.

The New York based Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index unexpectedly fell for a fifth consecutive month to 82.2—a new seven and a half year low—from a revised 85.3 in October. Analysts had forecast an increase to 86.5. The index compares results to its base year, 1985, when it stood at 100. The November figure is the lowest since February 1994, when it reached 79.9.

“The bottom line is that consumers feel lousy right now because of concerns about jobs,” said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis.

Other analysts said the drop in confidence likely would result in tepid retail sales in the coming weeks. Holiday sales account for 24% of retailers' annual revenue.

The index, based on a monthly survey of some 5,000 U.S. households, is closely watched because consumer confidence drives consumer spending, which accounts for about two thirds of the nation's economic activity.

Retailers offered deep discounts and other specials to lure customers to their stores this past Thanksgiving weekend, the traditional start of the holiday buying season. Early results barely met merchants' modest expectations—save Wal-Mart Stores and some other discount chains.

“It's going to be a rough Christmas for retailers,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

But at least consumers are feeling far better now than they did nearly a decade ago, when the index fell to 47.3 in February 1992 and the unemployment rate was 7.4%, two percentage points higher than it is today, Zandi said.

“I don't think we're going to plumb the lows of 10 years ago, but I think we're near bottom, assuming there are no further terrorist attacks,” he said.

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