GREAT NEWS: There’s a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel and it may not be an oncoming train. I’m referring to a story I read last week headlined “Most economists see recession end in ’09.” The article began, “More than 90% of economists predict the recession will end this year, although the recovery is likely to be bumpy.” Ah, there’s a catch. What do they mean “bumpy?” OK, I’ll take bumpy and fasten my seat belt. If this nightmare can end by the end of the year, who cares if the ride back is on a rollercoaster. The assessment came in a survey of leading forecasters by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) and is in line with the outlook of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues.

SPECIFICS: About 74% of the respondents expect the recession— which started in December 2007 and is the longest since World War II— to end in the third quarter. Another 19% predict the turning point will come in the final three months of the year, and the remaining 7% believe the recession will end in the first quarter of 2010. Even the worst case scenario—the pessimistic 7%—is palatable and eagerly anticipated. NABE president Chris Varvares said, “The economic recovery is likely to be considerably more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines.” In support of that, 71% of the forecasters believe a more thrifty consumer will be around for at least the next five years. They also predict the economy’s overall performance in 2009 will be “rotten,” though they think the worst is already behind us.

AGREEMENT: Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI chief economist Daniel J. Meckstroth concurs: “We are starting to see signs of economic conditions beginning to stabilize. We expect that the eventual recovery will be sluggish due to continued deleveraging by consumers as they move away from excessive debt and to greater savings. Lagging improvement in the job market and persistently high unemployment rates will restrain the pace of the recovery.” There’s that little caveat again, “sluggish” and “restrain.” But the important thing is getting there, not the potholes in the road. Meckstroth cited stimulus package spending, tax cuts, rising consumer spending, strengthening commodity process and recent improvement in the stock market as positive economic signs for the latter stages of 2009 and into 2010.

ONE MORE: Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, said the global downturn had bottomed out with some large economies already able to put the recession behind them and look forward to renewed growth. He didn’t single out the U.S. He said there were signs of a “pause” in the economic slowdown in France, Italy, the UK and China. He pointed out there has also been a rise in business and consumer sentiment in recent weeks, as orders have begun to return and levels of unsold stock have begun to subside. Glass is half full in America and half empty in Europe. Last week Trichet warned that in the 16-country eurozone “economic activity was likely to be very weak for the remainder of this year, before gradually recovering in the course of 2010.” We’ll meet you on Easy Street sometime in 2011.

OBSERVATION: Two groups of people have a profound affect on the economy and often on our lifestyle. In business today, as in politics, too many executives and elected officials spend money they haven’t earned and often stolen, to buy things they don’t need, to impress people they don’t even like, and who probably don’t like them. Be wary of people like that, because if they will lie for you, they will lie to you.