New
York, NY, Oct. 15—The outlook for the holiday season grew more uncertain as
the nation's largest retailers, whose already sluggish sales stalled following
last month's terrorist attacks, reported the weakest September results in
decades.
Wal-Mart Stores and deep discounters such as Dollar General were the big
winners. Department and apparel specialty stores, which have been languishing
for months, were hit even harder as more consumers shunned discretionary items
in favor of basics.
But some stores, including Michaels Stores, a crafts retailer, reported strong
results as consumers retreated to their homes.
“Even before September 11, retail sales would have been mediocre at best. The
attacks worsened the economic situation,” said Kurt Barnard, president of
Upper Montclair, New Jersey based Barnard's Retail Trend Report, citing more
massive layoffs and a volatile stock market. “Consumers are becoming even more
bargain hunters.”
Consumer spending that stalled after the attacks has since rebounded to what are
near normal levels for a sluggish economic environment, but Wall Street analysts
and retail executives remain wary about the holiday season. Companies are still
cutting jobs, and another terrorist attack on U.S. soil could again derail
consumer spending.
“The issue is how resilient will consumers be in the face of more layoffs,”
said Michael Niemira, vice president of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. “We have
seen a slowdown, but the question is: Is there another leg?”
The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Index registered a gain of 0.8%, making it the
weakest September in 30 years. Without Wal-Mart, which accounts for 25% of the
index, the indicator was down 2% for the 78 stores Niemira tracks.
Jeffrey Feiner, managing director of Lehman Brothers, said his company's retail
index, which follows 22 companies, registered its lowest September reading—a
1.4% gain—in the 20 years since it was first compiled.
He said he is halving his holiday forecasts to a 2% gain, and is reducing
earnings estimates on more than a dozen retailers.
Wal-Mart, which is taking market share away from department stores, reported a
robust 6.3% gain in same store sales, which tracks business in stores open at
least a year. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial/First Call had expected a
5% gain.
Kmart said same store sales in September were unchanged from a year ago and were
about in line with analysts' projections of 0.3%. Value oriented chain Kohl's
reported a solid 4% gain in same store sales, while Dollar General had a 9%
gain.
Most department stores as well as specialty apparel stores, including those
catering to teens, performed poorly. That prompted companies including May
Department Stores, Gap Inc., TJX Cos. and AnnTaylor Stores to reduce their
earnings forecasts.
The hardest hit have been upscale department stores like Neiman Marcus Group,
which last week reported a 19.5% drop in same stores sales, as consumers pull
back from big ticket luxury goods.
Federated reported a 12.9% slide in same store sales, although its results came
in a bit better than its reduced forecast issued last month. The company said
business improved toward the end of the month. While Federated said it is
difficult to forecast future sales, it believes same store sales for October
will be down 7% to 10%.
Meanwhile, Michaels said its same store sales rose 10%, while total sales were
up 18%. Apparently many consumers sought the comforts of home last month, buying
crafts and home furnishings.
A pleasant surprise came earlier from J.C. Penney Co., which reported that same
store sales rose 8.1% in its department store business.
September accounts for 9.4% of retailer's annual sales, making it the third most
important month of the year, behind December and June, according to Niemira.
Copyright
2001 Floor Focus Inc