Economy Still Shows Growth
Article Number : 27
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Date 9/2/2001 4:15:00 PM
Written By LGM & Associates Technical Flooring Services
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Washington, DC, Aug. 29—The U.S. economy grew only 0.2% this spring, the weakest performance in eight years, according to the Commerce Department's latest reading of gross domestic product for the second quarter; it represented a big downward revision to the estimate one month ago of a 0.7% growth rate.

Though the economy was ailing in the second quarter, some economists were optimistic that it didn't slip into negative territory as some had feared. “Psychologically, I think this is a good thing—the fact that the economy did keep its head above water,'' said Ken Mayland of ClearView Economics.

The revised, lower estimate was due largely to businesses doing a better job of working off excess inventories of unsold goods than previously estimated. While this process subtracts from GDP, economists say excess inventories must be whittled before companies can increase production, paving the way for economic growth down the road.

While second quarter growth remained positive, the rate of expansion was the weakest since a 0.1% rate of decline in the first quarter of 1993 as the country was struggling to emerge from the last recession.

The new GDP figure underscores how greatly the economy continued to weaken into the spring and marked the poorest showing to date in the country's yearlong economic slowdown. In the first three months of this year, the economy grew at a rate of 1.3%.

The Bush administration and many private economists predict the second quarter will prove to be the point of maximum danger for the economy. The administration is counting on nearly $40 billion of tax rebate checks and the aggressive credit easing by the Federal Reserve to lift the economy to higher growth rates in the second half of this year.

Some economists were worried that the revised GDP estimate for the second quarter would show that the economy either stalled or slipped into reverse, possibly signaling the start of the first recession in the U.S. in 11 years. A recession is usually defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP.

However, many economists predict that the economy will rebound to around a 2% growth rate in the current quarter and to 3.5% in the fourth quarter.

One of the main reasons for the lower estimate of second quarter GDP is that companies liquidated their inventories more than the government previously thought. Inventory reduction was valued at $38.4 billion in the second quarter, the biggest decline since the first quarter of 1983. That subtracted 0.4% from GDP.

Another reason for the downward revision was that the trade deficit was slightly worse because exports fell more than previously thought, reducing second quarter GDP by 0.3%.

Still, much of the overall weakness in the second quarter continued to come from companies cutting back sharply in their investment in plants and equipment, which had been a main source of strength driving the record expansion.

Worried by weak sales and plunging profits, U.S. companies reduced such investment in the second quarter at a rate of 14.6%, the worst showing since the second quarter of 1980. The new estimate was weaker than the 13.6% rate of decline previously estimated. The reduction in spending on computers and software in the second quarter was even sharper—15.1% versus the 14.5% rate of decline initially thought.

Spending on new factories and office buildings fell at rate of 13.4%.

The Commerce Department’s report also showed that after tax profits of U.S. corporations fell by 2% in the second quarter, following a 7.8% decline in the first quarter.

Consumer spending, which accounts for two thirds of total economic activity, rose at an annual rate of 2.5% in the second quarter, stronger than the 2.1% rate originally estimated. Also helping was a 5.8% rate of increase in residential construction, a sector that has remained strong, helped by falling interest rates.

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